Events this spring have increasingly revealed that the global recovery is extremely fragile and deflationary forces are still gathering strength. We continue to be locked in the downward phase of the long-term inflationary roller coaster that began decades ago.
This is a classic boom-bust cycle with increasing tendencies to move out of control. Over time, the economy requires larger doses of money and credit to get the next upward phase going. Because the size of the recent bust was so big and the residue of stranded debt so high, it will require extraordinary amounts of monetary stimulus and credit increases over a lengthy period to generate renewed expansion on a significant basis. This will eventually cause faster inflation and another bubble, which will repeat the cycle.