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Boeckh Investment Letter

Investment and economic commentary by J.Anthony Boeckh and Robert Boeckh

Better Economy: How Much Risk for Financial Markets?

The global economy continues to have a better feel to it, a trend in evidence for the past month or two. Once again, financial markets have forecast this strengthening. The better tempo of business in the strongest areas (Germany, the U.S. and Japan) and the apparent bottoming-out in the weaker areas (the rest of Europe, the UK, China and most commodity producers) bodes well for an acceleration in world economic growth in the latter part of this year and in 2014. However, very few are looking for more than a modest improvement in growth rates.

This view of solid but unspectacular growth appears to us to be pretty much mainstream now. A contrarian always has to wonder how that view could be wrong. Our guess is that the surprise is on the side of considerably faster growth than the consensus. Why that may be the case is not hard to see. For over four years we have drawn attention to the unprecedented magnitude of the monetary and fiscal reflation that aborted a global depression and banking collapse...

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