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Boeckh Investment Letter

Investment and economic commentary by J.Anthony Boeckh and Robert Boeckh

Quarterly Asset Allocation: June 2013

Despite Bernanke’s recent talk of trimming the Fed’s current $85bn/month QE program, it is likely that ultra-loose monetary policy will remain in place well into 2014. Economic indicators continue to provide a mixed picture, but the bottom line is that unemployment and housing are making very slow recoveries, and these are two areas of primary concern for the Fed.

Headline unemployment is improving, but there is a hidden element. Many workers have left the workforce, and another 2.2 million have given up looking and so don’t show up in headline unemployment numbers. The proportion of unemployed out of work for more than 27 weeks is still near peak levels. This indicates a mismatch between skills and jobs, as well as an ongoing shift in U.S. industry to less labor intensive production methods. To avoid permanent damage to U.S. productive capacity, the Fed will need to stay on the gas pedal for substantially longer...

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The Boeckh Investment Letter is a comprehensive service that provides analysis of factors affecting financial markets and broad investment recommendations* within an asset allocation context.  The service includes 12 to 18 issues per year (approximately every 3 to 4 weeks), depending on market conditions, i.e., changes in views, important new developments, etc.

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