The “fundamentals” behind the U.S. bull market remain intact and the long-term trend is up. However, two points need to be made. First, we put the word “fundamentals” in quotation marks to acknowledge that there are some very big problems that remain to be dealt with in the longer run. Second, investors’ risk appetite has become very large and aggressive on a global scale. While that is the hallmark of vigorous bull markets, it does flash a red light signaling that enthusiasm has become a bit too exuberant, frequently the precursor of a significant correction. The implication is that investors concerned with short-term volatility should be taking money off the table, even though we still believe the long-term trend is up.
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